We are definitively working on more short ideas, but here goes a different view. Below is my entry for graph of the month.
The market has traded up
We had modelled the cash squeeze at Nordex in all its detail late last year, but the company exceeded our expectations, or the Delta 4000 did. AS such, Nordex can probably make
Read MoreSales are slightly weaker and gross margin slightly stronger than we expected from the order/volume ratio previously communicated. But in the scheme of things
Read MoreRegarding Senvion Consent Solicitation:
Again, as per the first consent solicitation, this is a formality as the majority of the bonds is already controlled
Read MoreSenvion GmbH have filed for Insolcency in Germany - specifically for a procedure that allows for a self administration (DIP) process, where management stay in control.
Read MoreSenvion announce that the consent solicited last week has been obtained
Read MoreAs per pour mail last week, Senvion have still not found a financing solution and cash is running extremely tight.
Read MoreSenvion are out with a consent solicitation. The request is to raise the threshold for acceleration of the bonds from 25% to 50%.
Read MoreHaving dodged the Q4 bonanza, we are putting the short on again with 4% of NAV for now. We are looking to capture 30+ points of downside. Please find the updated analysis
Read MoreCorrection: the Polish business made Zero Ebitda in 2018. This means the value to bondholders is primarily in the cash consideration the company receives from
Read MoreNordex reported much as expected yesterday. Most importantly, management pledged a frugal approach to pre-producing turbines, which could quickly put their balance sheet
Read MoreNordex are to report their 2018 statements (recall that we have taken the short off). We expect a sudden movement into a net cash position on the back of significant prepayments on orders won in
Read MoreAn internal memo by Senvion CEO Yves Rannou has been leaked.
It gives no specifics unfortunately, but it does support our thesis that:
1) The turbine portfolio is narrow, but - for lack of sharing
Read MoreFollowing lender's rejection of Triton’s initial offer some two weeks ago, Triton have agreed to inject E50m in cash through additional equity.
Read MoreWe have given our Nordex analysis a detailed update. Following the company’s recent guidance for the full year, there is little point in keeping our short open
Read MoreAs we are expanding to coverage of 20 names in the coming weeks, please find attached a slightly higher level analysis
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