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Intro, Cap and Legal Structure - 5 Mar 24

Description of Divisions - 5 Mar 24

Cash Flow and Valuation - 5 Mar 24

Value Leakage - 5 Mar 24

Investment Discussion - 5 Mar 24
Ardagh Group can support its senior debt, reinstating the SSNs with an uplift in coupon, with the SUNs getting the equity is the
Ardagh Group will want to clear the legal challenge by Arini and Canyon before finalising a deal with creditors. Currently, the only transaction under
The ending of discussions between the SUNs and Ardagh Group is bad news for the SUNs. Ardagh looks to have rejected the latest SUN's counterproposal and
Glass operations are not what’s driving bond prices, and the maintained 2025 guidance doesn’t change much for creditors. AMP stock jumped
The SSNs are turning the screw over the crumbs being offered to the current shareholders at Ardagh Group (AG) in the restructuring. Inevitably, the equity
As tariffs continue to influence market dynamics, we've taken a comprehensive look across our coverage to highlight the names most likely to be affected. For full transparency, we've also included those that remain unaffected—it's just as important to understand where the impact isn't being felt.
The idea here is
The litigants have around 7% of the nominal value of the SUNs, which on their own is not enough to block the current proposals. Increasing the potential value of the
Please find our updated analysis here.
Ardagh Group (ARGID) has finally accepted that its capital structure is unsustainable. The SSNs and SUNs have different plans for the company, but we expect the
The pain in the debt restructuring proposal will fall mainly on the SUNs, but everyone is being asked to pitch in. The SSNs will be exchanged for new SSNs at Ardagh Group
A year ago we were the most negative in the city on Ardagh’s prospects and yet, the FY results were even worse than that. Management now expects US volumes to be
The closure of the Dolton plant will not have a major impact on Ardagh’s business, but it does underline that the weakness in glass packaging in the US is
Please find our unchanged analysis here.
We think Ardagh Group's (ARGID) restructuring is coming soon. Our positions in ARGID and Ardagh Metal Packaging have done well, and we want to take some
Paul Coulson and Ardagh’s CFO have resigned from the board of to-be-restructured ARD Finance, the issuer of the
The appointment of two restructuring experts as non-execs reflects the imminent restructuring. We expect the sale of Trivium Packaging will
SSN holders have realised their interests do not align with SUN holders. We have been puzzled at the level of cooperation between debt classes, and now
If the Trivium sale is done via an auction, it will probably be a few weeks away. However, the disposal should happen by 25Q1 and will
The permanent closure of the Seattle wine bottle facility has a modest impact but reflects the weakness in that segment of the
The downgrade to Caa2 (Negative) at Moody’s reflects the looming debt restructuring at Ardagh Group. The agency acknowledges the
The €269m (2029 maturity) Apollo loan adds more senior debt ahead of the SUNs. The new loan repaid ABL drawings, but the ABL is still available. In the event of
The numbers were worse than we expected as volumes in the US continue to fall and Europe/Africa only generates modest improvements. The H2 volume
Ardagh’s SUNs are up another couple of points on the news that a Trivium deal is close. We are very puzzled by the strength of the SUNs, which
Completing the sale of Trivium will provide Ardagh with the cash to fund the Amend & Extend operation piece of its
Ardagh has four production facilities in the UK, and the incoming (in 2025) recycling rules in the UK will hurt the competitiveness of glass unless
Stefan Schellinger was CFO at ContourGlobal when it was taken private by KKR in 2022. Reservoir Capital held 70% of ContourGlobal when KKR bough
Revenue was in line with our forecast, but EBITDA was ahead due to mix and additional absorption of costs. European volumes were +5%, assisted by a
On the 24Q2 results call, management did not comment on the state of discussions around Ardagh Group's debt restructuring. However, the
The SUNs have fallen five points since May, positive news for our short, but more reflective of the pressures to execute a restructuring than new
The appointment of advisors by a new cross-capital structure creditor group is a slight positive for SUN's holders. There will be investors long
The US glass business is not rebounding as fast as hoped, and due to the state of the market, Ardagh is closing a
These layoffs do not fundamentally change the picture for Ardagh Glass (AG), but pressure from cheap imports continues to hurt sales in