Sarria: Tariff Terror - what it means for every name

All,

As tariffs continue to influence market dynamics, we've taken a comprehensive look across our coverage to highlight the names most likely to be affected. For full transparency, we've also included those that remain unaffected—it's just as important to understand where the impact isn't being felt. 

The idea here is only to outline the primary effect. International retaliations and secondary effects would exceed our focus for now. Clearly, each company has a variety of ways of dealing with the tariffs: some have discretion over their sales, some are locked into contracts, some need to pay for the tariff, some will need their clients to pay, some will raise prices and some may want to exit the market. The following paragraphs therefore are not necessarily coherent or exhaustive. They just aim to sketch a first image.

Names directly affected:

Adler Pelzer  

17% of revenue have direct exposure to Nafta and are primarily achieved in Mexico from where some large part should be shipped into the US. However, 80% of German-built cars are made for export and some 13% of those generally ship to the US. So total exposure to the US should be approx. 27% or less. We go with 15%. Those sales will be facing 25% tariffs, coming to a margin headwind of 3.75% (half of EBITDA).

Amara

Its US business Synergy probably makes aprrox. $100m revenue by now. It is dependent on Imports from China of cheap solar panels. 25% however are probably what the panels will deprecate in a year (typically 15%) plus a 19% discount, because overloading the rest of the world with supply would achieve the same discount. Altogether this represents two years of depreciation. There will probably be one year of low demand before the business resumes. The US won’t start producing solar panels in the meantime.

AMS Osram

AMS generates c.€600m revenue in the USA and although they have some factories in the Americas we don’t believe any manufacturing is in the USA. If 100% imported, with 20% tariffs, it would be €100m of additional taxes, which is greater than the €80m EBITDA generated in the USA. In the worst-case scenario, AMS would lose all this business, which is 15% of FY24 EBITDA. Another ~25% of revenue should be to European OEMs, of which we estimate 10% would be at risk from tariffs born by the OEMs.

Antolin

1/3 of revenues goes to NAFTA, which should be dominated by the US. The company seems to have twice as many plants in the US than in Mexico, but we don’t know the relative Value Added they rpoduce. Going by those figures Antolin would have 10% direct exposure at 25% tariffs, but be relatively well placed to shift business into the US, or play with transfer pricing. Europe accounts for almost half of revenues, which could add up to another 10% of revenue exposure at 20%. Overall that makes a headwind of up to 4.5% of margin exposure (majority of EBITDA).

Ardagh

Very little exported to the US, packaging is a local business usually. Some relief in Wine Bottles from lower China imports, marginal

Aston Martin 

37% of sales were to the US in 2024. Price elasticity is low. Estimate 6% hit to volumes and around £25m in cash flow. 

Birkenstock 

Up to 50% of sales are to the US, all production is in Germany. We had estimated a price hike of 10% from the increase in tariffs. The US does not have a domestic footwear industry of any size. It is highly unlikely one will spring up overnight. Birkenstock already suffers from copycat manufacturing, but this is footwear also being imported into the US, so the additional competition will be low. Inventory will have been built up in the US ahead of the summer selling season, so the impact in the next two quarters will be small.

Consolidated Energy

Methanol and Fertiliser sales to the US account for 30% of sales on average, 70% is from plants outside the US. We estimate a 10% tariff would equate to a 2% fall in revenues. We would expect around a 5% fall in profitability as lower profits on exports would be partially compensated by higher demand for Natgasoline production which would become relatively cheaper. The price paid for Natural Gas in Trinidad is linked to the price of Methanol and Fertilizer, so the government is incentivised to find a way to work with the producers.

Flora

Limited Impact which is mitigated by having some production in the USA. Raw materials will be imported and we estimate this to be c.50% of COGS. Total Americas sales is €1.2bn, of which we assume half is in the USA. The tariff on the imported raw materials would be €36m of additional costs or 4% of EBITDA.

Isabel Marant

The sales split is only for the Americas, which is 13%. Assuming 10% is the USA alone, which is €20m of annual sales. Because of the high margin, we assume Isabel Marant sell at cost to its US business, it would only be €1m additional costs in tariffs which is minor compared to the €23m FY25 projection for EBITDA after leases. Isabel Marant’s issues lie elsewhere, tariffs don’t help but are not material.

Kloeckner Pentaplast

On balance, we think the company should see little Margin exposure.

1/4 of revenues is generated in the US, but is approximately matched by local production capacity. Pharmaceuticals are excluded from tariffs, but is pharma packaging included? We also don’t quite know the make-up of the US business - what part is pharma and what part is not. 

Ocado

18% of revenue came from the US last year. Ocado builds its equipment in the UK and leases it to Kroger. Tariffs will raise the price, but the tech cannot be replaced and Kroger will need to buy it from Ocado. We do not expect a significant revenue or margin impact. 

Standard Profil

No production in the USA and 10% of sales to North America, which is likely Mexico. We would question if there is much sales directly to the USA. Therefore no direct exposure. In addition, the ultimate destination of another 50% of revenue is to European OEMs, of which we estimate 10% would be at risk from tariffs born by the OEMs. In total that makes 15% indirect exposure to tariffs.

Viridien

US is not split out, most data revenues from US operators will be billed at a local level. Some Manufacturing could be caught though. We do not expect a significant impact, and the bias for drilling will help top line and margins. 

Names not directly affected:

Adler

Asda

Altice SFR

Altice International

Aroundtown

Atalian

ATOS

Boparan

Branicks

Cerba

Clariane

CPI Property

Emeria

Eutelsat

Graanul

Grifols

Heimstaden

HSE24

Iceland

Intrum

Isabel Marant

KemOne

Lowell

Maxeda

Morrisons

OHLA

Oriflame

Orpea

Pfleiderer

Pizza Express

Punch

Rekeep

SBB

Selecta

SES/Intelsat

Standard Profil

Stonegate

Tele Columbus

Thames Water

The Very Group

Tullow

Upfiled

Victoria

Vivion

VMED

Here to Discuss,

Wolfgang

E: wfelix@sarria.co.uk
T: +44 203 744 7003
www.sarria.co.uk