Please refer to our unchanged analysis here.
After initially positioning ourselves for a VW take-out ahead of the restructuring, it is finally here - only that

Please find our unchanged analysis of Europcar here.

The upside of VW re-integrating the Rental company has been making a lot of sense to us and we were surprised the OEM did not come forward to buy the business on the cheap in 2020. Over a year after we

Please refer to our Europcar analysis here.

The call was uneventful and unsurprisingly the company is trading well below our expectations at the beginning of the year, given

Please find our unchanged analysis here.

Following Europcar's restructuring becoming effective on Thursday, Friday’s share price rocketed as the stock is becoming available to a wider investor audience. Nevertheless,

Please refer to our unchanged analysis here.

As widely anticipated, the Paris Commercial Court has approved the Europcar SFA, which in any event was mostly consensual. Subject to today’s recognition hearing in the US this plan will go ahead. The prospectae for the new instruments

Calling the Europcar EGM with only 2 weeks notice should help with voting as shareholders must agree with “only” 2/3 of votes represented. Given the

Please refer to our updated analysis of Europcar here.

Fleet model, CFs, recap and legal remain unchanged, but we have added a more concrete NPV and IRR on the current bonds / future equity.

By the company’s estimation, the

A court ruling is expected by mid-January (with at most one-month extension), which is sooner / better than we had expected. Note that we suffer from unevenly distributed information regarding certain documents that were available on

Further to our previous note, we would like to make a clarification.
The member in question has been considering the legal basis of the non-disclosure of information in

Please refer to our unchanged analysis here.
One Sarria member is frustrated by Europcar’s information policy around the term sheets underlying the new facilities and have informed us they will be notifying the FCA and

Please refer to our updated analysis here.

It’s a small update on paper. Our initial estimates have not been far off, and we’ve sent the updated recapitalisation table in our last email. The analysis now reflects the currently discussed deal.

Positioning:

Please refer to our unchanged analysis here.

Despite some of the detail, the refinancing is close to our estimates. Cash injection is admittedly E75m lower than we had estimated and the Fleet cash is being provided directly via an equity RCF as opposed to being injected down from via the corporate level, but otherwise, the metrics compare closely.

Please refer to this week’s analysis of Europcar here.

We are dipping our toe with a

Please refer to our updated analysis, integrated CF model and recap scenario here.

We like the company. Never mind that we struggle to credibly model the

M. Bourboulougx has been appointed and while advisors are signing NDAs in expectation of the IBR from 8Advisory this morning, some further thoughts on game theory and positioning below:

Holdco Notes - large but vulnerable:

We had expected consents to be more readily forthcoming. L&W Paris are locked in conference calls all day and despite best efforts, we - and even Lazard - have yet to hear back ...

The bonds are not in strong enough

While we are waiting for 8 Advisory, this is how we are thinking about the bonds:

On the size of the restructuring:

- With the bonds’ BV approx. 10x market cap, any