Boparan – Delivering Brexit and other realities.
All,
Please find our unchanged analysis here.
In the coming quarters Increasing cost pressures for Boparan will represent a £6m a quarter headwind relative to our analysis from August that will hurt EBITDA and Operating cash flow in the next few quarters given the time lag in any cost recovery from customers. Boparan’s FYE July 21 numbers will be ugly and the 2021/22 outlook will be equally unpleasant Whilst the headwinds are manageable in the near term, pricing will need to be addressed by the major supermarkets rather than placing the burden on producers. In the meantime, the bonds will be under pressure and we anticipate rating pressure, which would force certain holders to exit in the event of a downgrade. We will update our model at the FY results in November.
Cost Pressure across the board:
- Our assessment of the cost increases is that they may equate to further headwinds of up to £6m a quarter vs our previous analysis (prior to recovery via price rises). In the context of our expected 2021/22 EBITDA of £69m wearing these costs would leave EBITDA at £53m and available cash at -£23m. Manageable, in the short term assuming the RCF was drawn (as we expect) in July 2021. However, a downgrade would be become probable, given the apocalyptic outlook that Boparan is pushing.
- Feed prices: We estimate that feed costs have represented a £60m headwind in the last year. We have built this into our model already. One note of caution is the rise in feed prices in October. We had assumed a modest reduction looking forward and for now we are sticking with this. Other agricultural costs are up but we don’t believe this will have a major impact.
- Wages: This could represent a £2m headwind in the final quarter vs our model. The impact on overall costs in 2021/22 could be in the £6m range. We expected some volume attrition as the company sought to reduce the impact and this is the case.
- Packaging; Our estimates see this as a £2m headwind. We expect the impact to be around 30bp, although much of this will be passed on to retailers (possibly with a lag)
- Energy/CO2: We see a potential cost headwind of £2m - £3m a quarter. Boparan will not be buying its electricity at spot rates.
- Transportation: The potential for a strike by UK HGV drivers and a strike at the DVLA in the coming weeks, underline a shift in power towards labour. This is not going to go away, better pay and conditions for lower paid workers is perceived by many of those who voted for Brexit as their “dividend” and the government will be reluctant to be seen to re-introduce freedom of movement to dampen low paid workers wages. Getting industry to swallow the costs or pass them on is politically more palatable
- Brexit isn’t the only driver of cost rises and the continued rise in input costs will require industry wide price rises, either through cooperation with supermarkets or the uncontrolled removal of capacity. The government will prefer price inflation to suppressing low paid workers wages by re-introducing (limited) freedom of movement.
Positioning:
- We have taken a 5% of NAV short position via the standard 5year CDS. The cost comment underlines our expectation that Q4 20/21 was nasty and that this financial year the pressure is worsening given the potential £6m a quarter downside to our August analysis. Also, a rating downgrade would force some investors to sell further pressurising prices. Government is not going to intervene to help remove cost pressure and the large supermarket groups are going to drag their heels around any price increases. Sentiment is going to worsen from here for what is already seen as a high beta credit.
- Our short is currently at break-even point. The main catalyst for a significant further drop would be a downgrade to below B-, forcing CDOs to dispose of their holdings. However, we expect the poor results and outlook to cause the bonds to continue to drift lower and Investors may also be spooked when they see the RCF has been drawn.
We look forward to discussing this and exchanging ideas with you
Regards
Aengus,
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E: amcmahon@sarria.co.uk
T: +44 203 744 7055