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Introduction 23/07/2021

Supply Chain, Feed Prices 23/07/2021

Investment Discussion 23/07/2021
Revenue and EBITDA (including margins) were ahead of our estimates. Poultry benefited from destocking, which boosted prices. However,
Purchasing the other 50% of the Hook2Sisters will give the Boparan Family Office more opportunities to manage the margins at
Quickly finding a replacement for the old CFO is a positive for Boparan/2 Sisters. With the refinance behind them, the new CFO has
Congratulations to Ranjit Boparan for finishing the London Marathon and raising £140k for charity.
Topline and Gross Profit/EBITDA were broadly in line with our estimates; operating cash flow was higher due to a better-than-expected payables performance in
Sourcing some of its chicken from Germany is more about ASDA’s lower prices campaign than it is about supply chain challenges. It sends a warning shot to
CMA approval for the Boparan family to purchase ForFarmers may provide some scope to support Boparan, but with 75% of sales subject to ratchets
Please find our new analysis here.
Boparan got its refinancing away in November 2024, pushing its maturities to November 2029. Part of the European Poultry business was disposed of,
The impact of Avian Flu on Boparan is small so far. In Norfolk, four farms have reported cases and a handful of new control zones have been set up; the control zones
Ranjit Boparan is pushing for higher chicken prices from his supermarket customers as he tries to recover £30m of higher costs due to the
Given the new bond was issued after this quarter ended, there are no surprises in the FYE25 Q1 figures. On a positive note, volumes continue
The ratchet system in place with the supermarkets regarding feed prices is the primary reason the CMA is preventing (for a second time) the
The rating upgrade reflects the successful completion of the refinancing at Boparan. S&P expects (agency-adjusted) EBITDA of
The warning from Ranjit Boparan about rising costs in the Poultry business resulting from the recent budget will depress bond prices. The increase in
Once again, a rabbit from the hat arrives when Boparan is refinancing. The sale of the European business will reduce headline leverage to 2.7x. The new SSN is a £390m 5-year (NC2) deal on an Adjusted EBITDA of £141m and a margin of 6.4%. Margins of ~6.5% will likely be under pressure as supermarkets previously saw 5% as normal. In previous refinancings, pressure in the supply chain has followed quickly. We will take a proper look at the OM, but our bias is to look at Boparan as a short once the deal is done.