As per our previous note, Wheel Bidco did not end up making an offer for The Restaurant Group, which was
Wagamama is of course a great asset, and creating a UK restaurant group around some of its favourite foods sounds like a great idea. But we see the Pizza Express approach
Q3 results have been very encouragingly strong for the UK QSR Chain. Having gone through a CVA and bond restructuring last
Clearly, H121 has been phenomenal and we are sitting on unlevered 23% net return for the first six months. So naturally, we should throw out a few names where the opportunity now lies behind us and that we no longer consider worth covering - unless you do, that is.
New Names:
Value has been shifting this week. The commercial real estate sector received another setback from a landmark ruling in connection with the restructuring of
England’s new national holiday will be placed on the 17th of May - the day pubs re-opened. Incidentally, that is also the earliest date from which foreign holidays may be allowed. Meanwhile, the EU are unlikely to be much faster.
Oh, we always knew that:
Reference to updated analysis here.
Pizza Express are moving ahead with a Part 26A Plan to be heard tomorrow morning at 11 am.
The plan is likely to be successful and should
All,
Please refer to our slightly updated analysis of Pizza Express here.
With the CVA having been successfully accepted, the largest remaining hurdle to a smooth restructuring is the
Please refer to our analysis and all new model of Pizza Express here.
Ahead of today's creditor meeting we have modelled Pizza Express going forward on the basis proposed in the LUA and CVA documentation. We understand that there has been
In the last minute the Pizza Express' deal ultimately divides the company, but leaves Remain-Co at least with the 93 international sites (~50% franchised) outside of the 60 sites in Mainland China, which go to
Clearly that would be a significant shift of wealth from landlords to retailers and of market/government focus vice versa. Perhaps it is time to position for that in the very short term (today).
Boris Johnsn’s order to close shops has come just in time for retailers. British Q2
Please find our updated analysis here.
PE’s new 70m SSRCF was provided by
Below is an account of each of the names we follow and have begun work on in the context of Covid19 and Oil prices. Several names stand out as having become either uninvestible or outright attractive - already now.
We are having a change of heart on Pizza Express and are exiting our position in the SSNs. As we made further allowances for the Coronavirus
Please find our updated analysis here.
The Restaurant Group’s guidance for 2020 suggests that we adjust our Pizza Express model downwards. If Restaurant Group’s FY20 guidance is
Pizza Hut China delivered traffic growth in restaurants and delivery.
- LfLs were up 1%, but those figures are tainted by
We still have no official news. One or two desks seem to have
Well, scrapping the Q&A was a bit useless, but well advised. So what do we thing we have learned?
The RCF needs to be addressed before February:
- Management expect a cash outflow
Thought experiment:
If Hony - by whatever means - managed to control / lock-up / acquire another £35m of
Following Hony’s announcement of having received tenders for some £93m face value of PE 2Lns yesterday, its probably worth exploring in particular three options that Hony may consider from here:
Assumptions:
- Hony seem to have access to
First: We like our SSNs and will be looking to increase size if still available. Please refer to our analysis here.
Second: Hony with fresh cash is
While Pizza Hut China performance does not translate one for one into Pizza Express International performance, the continued low
Following news that John Lewis is seeking discounts from landlords, the Sunday Telegraph reported that Mike Ashley is to shut down most of HOF’s stores after
Qualification: The previous email on advisors to the company and to the SSNs still has rumour status. No engagements have been signed yet.
As per conversations with most of you, we have been expecting an approach to bondholders in November. However, things have been progressing more
Pizza Express did not present any news on a possible restructuring today, but nonetheless seem to be due in H2 of this year as business is FCF neutral and at best remaining so for the foreseeable future. Given coupon
Crucially, the penultimate point in the presentation is: “Capital Structure”, before the ultimate point: “Next Update in November 2019”. So we are curious as to what the comment on
An analysis of the timing of the restaurant roll-out (mostly 2016/2017) suggests that a significant number of international restaurant locations is coming up for
Pizza Expres SUNs are falling.
The company has paid coupons. With the bonds trading flat
PE are not replacing the position of HR director.
While the move in itself does not have any direct consequences on its own, any