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The company has reported very strong results that have beat our expectations. With record sales (up 17%) the underlying EBITDA of €132m is up YoY as the
Please find our model of Takko here.
We have been following Takko in detail over the past years, through covid and now into its eventual restructuring. We have no doubt that the company will
Patchy news are out that Takko have reached an agreement involving a €150m debt/equity swap for the majority of shares in Takko. Missing from the information is
Takko’s sales through December (usually year ends in January) are on apr with our modelling, but margins seem to have been better. Gauging our implicit forecast through
We are unsure if its bravery or foolishness, but Takko have a new Chief Information Officer. With his employer headed for a restructuring that
On what looks like slightly lower higher discounts, Takko’s gross profit is a mere €4m off expectations. Staff costs are as expected, as is rent. So EBITDA actually
The bonds have now moved up, on the one hand, to reflect a cancellation of the bond repo, which is producing a short squeeze and on the other to account for another scenario we have been favouring, where
The German government has found that it will be earning an extra surplus of €126 bn between now and 2026 compared to its most recent estimate
According to German market research firm GFK, their widely tracked survey concluded that Consumer Confidence has not deteriorated further in
Please find our updated analysis of Takko here.
We've been here before. In 2004, following the German Labour Market Reform, sales dropped, trade insurers walked out and the LCs had to be arranged with haste. Shortly after a precarious refinancing led by Simon Mansfield's ESSG of GS and involving
A news article yesterday has claimed that Apax are asking Takko’s LC and TLB providers to extend maturity beyond May 2023 and that this would run counter to Silverpoint’s plans, which were not further specified. We have previously written about the
Q2 results to July showed better turnover and despite a lower margin also better GP than we had modelled. Otherwise, largely accurate cost and
Germany’s retail sales have dropped dramatically in June. Real turnover dropped further by -1.6% MoM to -8.8% YoY. Within that, food is down by the same amount MoM and a staggering -7.2% YoY - possibly due to the 11.9% inflation in that category, but
We are out this morning, but first impressions of Takko’s results are very disappointing. Relative to our expectations, Takko have underperformed by
In light of the current state of the market, the methuselahmic sponsor of 10 supportive years, cost pressures all round, disposable income concerns, Takko are again worth sharpening our pencils for. To be sure, Takko have performed admirably throughout the pandemic, even when considering the fresh cash injection last year. But the debt pile it has been carrying so lightly in years gone by is now becoming very very heavy. We have been toying with a recap model and have extended our forecast to take more of an owners’ view of the name.