Tullow - To preempt or not
All,
Please find our updated model here.
Following Kosmos' update to the market on current production and expectations for the Ghanian fields we have made modest changes to our model attached. These changes are positive overall and reconfirm the underlying long positions in Tullow bonds and equity.
Focus on Operations:
- We are expecting a stronger performance from Tullow over the next 6-12 months, with the uplift in EBITDA from rising oil prices and more importantly rising production levels from the increased drilling, pushing leverage down to below 2.0x as we trade in to FY22.
Preemption rights:
- Tullow have until 13th November to exercise pre-emption rights in relation to the sale of Occidental's stake in Jubilee and TEN. For $125m, Tullow can acquire a further 3.8% of Jubilee fields and 8.3% of TEN fields. This equates to 6,000 boepd, which equates to c.1.1x incremental EBITDAX. Gven the current oil price versus the $65/bbl oil price the deal was struck at, we fully expect Tullow to exercise its option.
- We would view it negatively if Tullow decide not to exercise their option. Tullow have significantly higher cash balances than they envisaged during the refinancing, and although it would increase their CAPEX spend going forward, at current oil prices should be self-financing. It would be a negative signal to the market on their internal valuations of TEN and Jubilee fields if they did not exercise.
Kenyan update:
- We do not expect any update from Tullow in their November statement on the Kenyan process and the finalisation of the Field Development Plan (FDP). The Company are likely to reiterate that a draft FDP is currently with the Kenyan Authorities and ongoing discussions continue.
- We also expect Tullow will not provide any update on their efforts to farm out their interests. This project is wholly equity risk and we expect Tullow will reduce their interest for a consideration equal to capital commitments required to progress the project. We envisage no positive or negative cash flow from Kenya in the coming 2-3yr period.
Drilling update:
- The focus of the operational update in November will be to update the market on current production levels, (likely to increase guidance for FY21) and provide an update on the last two rigs currently been drilled in Ghana. Historically, Tullow do not provide any guidance for the following year at their November update as drilling plans are not finalised with their JV partners until early January.
Positioning:
- For now, we maintain our 3% position in the 2025 bonds (acquired at 70% in January) and our long 4% equity position (52p in March).
- With an update due from the Company in November (which will highlight the higher production levels), the overall yield on both notes should tighten to a 10% YTM, equating to a bond price of 92.5% on the subs.
- Although the differential between the Senior Secured Notes and the Unsecured 2025 Notes has tightened since issuance (c. 400bps+ to currently c. 300bps) we still expect a further 150bps of tightening. Currently, the spread is too wide given both bonds are exposed to oil price movement and more importantly the success or otherwise of the drilling program. We expected to be 150bps differential, but even at 200bps, the 2025 bonds have 2 points of upside.
- However, should Tullow fail to exercise their right (accretive as the price is), then we would exit our positions next month.
Happy to discuss
Tomás
T: +44 20 3744 7009
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