Tullow - it is all about Production
All,
Please find our updated model here.
Although benefiting from a rising oil price environment, Tullow’s success or otherwise depends on their drilling program and firstly stabilising, and subsequently growing their production figures. The Gross production figures from TEN and Jubilee provide the contrast in fortunes depending on CAPEX spend or lack of.
Current Trading
- Overall H121 results were in line with our expectations, albeit with a higher production numbers and higher sales volume due to previous production not sold. Free Cash Flow was lower than our model due to Working Capital movements.
- Operationally, the montlhy production numbers from Ghana Petrolium Authority show both positive and negative data. On the positive side, the production figures from Jubilee are very encouraging and the rise in production of the first new well having a greater impact than previously expected. However, on TEN, the production figures are a little disappointing on our numbers.
Model Changes
- Apart from a slight movement upwards in our oil price assumptions, we have only made minor changes to our model. Keeping the oil price assumptions the same as previous model, highlights the impact of the production movement. We have kept our decay rate the same for FY22 and beyond but FY21 production guidance of 60,000 boepd is 2,000 boepd higher than we modelled previously. This re-iterates the point we have made several times - higher oil prices are all good and well, but stable and growing production is the main driving factor of value at Tullow.
- Without changing oil price assumptions, the EBITDAX is c. $100m higher p.a. due to the higher production.
- We have increased the oil price assumption to a base of $65/bbl FY21, $68/bbl FY22 and $70/bbl beyond. The Company leverage approaches 1.5x (excluding leases) by Dec-24.
Upcoming Events
- An unfavourable resolution to the Ghanian Tax liability is a potential negative news flow over the coming months - however, it does not appear that an early resolution is likely in this dispute that goes back to 2018
- Any announcement of a farm-down of the Kenyan operations, which would be viewed as positive for Tullow. We should hear an announcement before year-end.
- Tullow continue their drilling program and are likely to update the market in October or November on the success or otherwise of the new wells.
Positioning:
- We maintain our 3% long position in the 2025 bonds and our 4% long position in Tullow equity. We continue to expect the differential between the 2025 Senior Notes (sub) and the 2026 Senior Secured Notes to tighten, and firmly believe the 350bps+ differential is too much.
- We don’t expect any movement in the equity price (apart from tracking underlying oil prices) until an announcement of a farm-down (strategic partner) in relation to their Kenyan exploration. Any farm-down will be linked with independent verification of the viability of that field, which should drive the equity price upwards. The bonds are likely to benefit also, but given we don’t expect any deleveraging from this transaction, bond price movement could be muted.
Happy to discuss
Tomás
E: tmannion@sarria.co.uk
T: +44 20 3744 7009
M:+44 7786 705 806
www.sarria.co.uk