Schmolz+Bickenbach - scenarios and thresholds
All,
There are few news this morning in the company’s press release, except the more precise math of its rights allocation.
Observations:
- We are still not clear if the family plans to participate.
- As stated before, the shareholder agreement at the EGM does not provide the company with instructions for all scenarios. Below are the thresholds that need to be met to mare the rights issue work.
- The company considers the scenario unlikely in which the free float signs many rights at CHF 0.30, since that is above the current share price of 0.26CHF.
- However, the rights issue going ahead should materially alter the prospects of the company and with that the share price (arguably should have already done so and - hasn’t). If that drives the price to 0.30CHF, (some 10-15% higher) then the scenario becomes more plausible (particularly if the family participates) and may ultimately restrict Mr. Haefner’s ability to reach his targeted threshold and possibly not trigger the bonds.
- Plan A however does trigger the bonds and thus far Plan A is in execution.
Scenarios:
To achieve 37.5% for Mr. Haefner and 25% for Liwet:
If the family participates in full:
- At issue price of CHF 0.20 Liwet would have to take up 80% of their rights and the free float would have to take up no more than 52% of rights.
- At issue price of CHF 0.25 Liwet would have to take up 78% of their rights and the free float would have to take up no more than 50% of rights.
- At issue price of CHF 0.30 Liwet would have to take up 77% of their rights and the free float would have to take up no more than 47% of rights.
If the family does not participates at all:
- At issue price of CHF 0.20 Liwet would have to take up 80% of their rights and the free float would have to take up no more than 76% of rights.
- At issue price of CHF 0.25 Liwet would have to take up 78% of their rights and the free float would have to take up no more than 75% of rights.
- At issue price of CHF 0.30 Liwet would have to take up 77% of their rights and the free float would have to take up no more than 71% of rights.
We will release our Ad-Hoc analysis of S+B later today.
Wolfgang