SBB Norden - comment

We are puzzled as to what Fir Tree’s strategy is in filing for an acceleration of its English Law EMTNs.  If we assume that Fir Tree entered at 50c/€ and the bonds are trading in the mid-60s, how much upside is there in an action that would force a court process? Getting a court order on the English Law EMTNs could take up to 18 months and an insolvency process thereafter would take any eventual payment day to close to the final maturities of the debt stack. Possibly, a group of large institutional holders would bid for Fir Trees bonds at 55c/€ to prevent the whole structure from collapsing, but we are sceptical. If the Fir Tree suit succeeds, other bondholders will also take action to get their cash. With SEK30bn of English Law EMTN notes in issue, SBB would be forced into a court process in Sweden (which contains a standstill). We doubt there are marginal buyers out there for the €46m (nominal) that Fir Tree holds.

corporate.sbbnorden.se/en/update-regarding-bondholder-allegation/