ProGest - comment

The Dec. 2024 bonds are down massively since the company announced it would halt production. Since the various sr. sec. facilities have been largely bundled by Carlyle structurally and in every other way ahead of the bonds, they would have no leg to stand on in a restructuring. However, from a fundamental perspective, it should not take long for the paper market to adjust to the new pricing requirements. While Northern Italy is littered with defunct paper plants, the main rival paper comes across the alps from - Germany, the other country so heavily impacted by potential Russian gas/oil cuts. So we don’t think it’ll be too long before production resumes. We’ll be dusting off.