Ocado - Leveraging the mousetrap.
Dear All,
Please find our initiation of Ocado Group Plc here.
The first half of 2022 is not likely to have been very kind to Ocado's UK business as costs have hurt gross margins. More pertinently, Ocado is looking to reposition itself from being a grocer to being a tech-based logistics partner for grocers globally. This transformation will not be cheap or easy. As a first mover, Ocado has the benefit of having the best-developed mousetrap, but it isn't the only game in town and staying ahead of the competition will be a challenge. The cash on hand leaves equity taking the strain for now. The legacy retail business is having a challenging time as consumers returning to work and inflation are hitting the top and bottom lines. So when driving cashflows for the two businesses separately, how far does the sum of Ocado’s parts cover the bonds and how should we think about valuing each part? Are these bonds attractive here?
Pivoting to Logistics:
- Ocado is seeking growth outside of the UK by selling its logistics experience and systems to grocers looking to improve their online offering.
- The logistics business will not generate any meaningful cash until 2027. Its value is all optionality right now and as bondholders, we are happy for the equity to fund that.
- Our DCF valuation on the international logistics business (which includes the Morrisons partnership) is £750m, covering approx. 50% of gross debt. However, that belies the fact that the business will be deeply CF negative for years to come.
- Ocado will consume cash until FYE26 and it will have £1bn of refinancing to complete in FYE25. If the international business is on track and the markets are open this would represent around 2x of refinancing on a structure with 3.8x leverage. Albeit one where around half the EBITDA will still be from Retail and although presumably on a positive slope, CF remains negative.
- Ocado has £1.8bn of cash available to complete the build-out of the 59 centres ordered. Ocado is betting (and we agree) that its twenty years of online grocery delivery gives it a head start in the business. But we do see increasing commoditisation over time. Groceries or widgets it's all logistics and other operators will move in. Ocado may have the best mouse trap, but they will not have the only one. This does mean that if something goes wrong along the way, the company will not have endless time to fix it before its valuation starts getting impaired.
Ocado retail 2022 is challenging:
- Valuation in the Retail JV will be driven by a recovery in M&S and the strength of its food offering. M&S could buy out Ocado after 2024 or the two could agree to an IPO. Our valuation of this business provides a 60% coverage baseline value for the bonds as the cash at Ocado group is going to be spent on building the international business.
- We expect an EBITDA of approx. £40m in 2022 heavily weighted to H2 this year. 2021 EBITDA levels will not be achieved again until 2024 but we expect results to accelerate from there. The major trends of convenience that are driving customers and the cost that is driving grocers are not going away.
- In the aftermath of the pandemic, top line growth disappeared in Q122 with Q2 also expected by management to be weak before some recovery to growth in 2023. The return to office has hit the basket levels and this is not being compensated for by higher numbers of orders. Gross margins are also being crimped by the surge in inflation. Eventually, this will be recovered as prices adjust and the underlying online trend comes through again, but it will take time.
Investment Considerations
The SUNs yield 10%, we think 13% is more appropriate. The SUNs are covered 60p/£ by the value of the retail business. The rest is the potential value of the international business, and we would need a return of 15% (not significant debt ahead). Blending our RRRs for the two businesses we get 13%. A poor set of results could see the bonds pull back and if our medium-term thesis holds we will be seeking to get involved when looking to add risk again in general. Of the three issues, we prefer the lowest priced, highest duration 27s to take advantage of some beta when the market does one day, eventually, perhaps, in fact - turn.
I look forward to discussing this with you all.
Aengus
E: amcmahon@sarria.co.uk
T: +44 203 744 7055