Aston Martin – comment

AML Chair Lawrence stroll appeared alongside CEO Tobias Moers at the FY presentation; a nice gesture after recent speculation that Stroll was looking to replace him. FY 2021 was a successful year for Aston, although the 2022 volume outlook of >6.6k units suggests that getting to 10k units a year will be more back-ended than we had modelled. A lot is riding on the continued success of the DBX (both high-end and electric versions). 

- Our model is unchanged in that Aston needs to exceed its guidance to maintain liquidity. The 2022 guidance from the company shows that its 2024/25 goals (10k units, £2bn Revenue and £500m of EBITDA) are still credible but also a stretch. We are comfortable remaining on the sideline for now given bond prices.  

-The SSNs/SUNs are subject to call protection which falls away in November 2024, Lawrence Stroll reiterated his desire to replace this high coupon debt. This will be after the call protection has fallen away.   

- 2021 was a successful year for Aston, volumes/average sale price and EBITDA were in line with our expectations. The company finished the year with £419m in cash. The difference to our estimate of £329m was largely down to a better working capital performance (+£50m predominantly down to deposit inflows) and £30m from lower than anticipated Capex (which the company acknowledged in its January trading statement). Hypercars will garner a lot of publicity but are secondary to the company being able to keep the lights on.