Intralot - August, September, October...
All,
Please find our unchanged analysis here.
We had begun to think that we were missing something on the name, since the expectation two months ago was to have some form of proposal in bondholder hands by August, then September. Now its October and the 24s have still not seen any engagement. Never mind that we initially thought we’d get a proposal in April.
We are not plugged in with the 21s, since these are mainly held by only two large accounts. But rumour has it - believably - that the 21s are pushing for security over the US assets while the company is not willing to give it. We have seen the 21s move up a few points in the last week or two, but are unsure of any significant volume underlying that shift.
Fundamentally there seems to be no change from the game theory as previously discussed, only that the company prefers to first get support from the 21s before approaching the 24s, which seems only reasonable.
We remain long our position in the 24s on a) the notion that any deal will be better than mid-20s and b) that faced with the prospect of trading down to 24s level, the 21s will blink first and take a substantially p.p. deal that also works for Kokkalis.
Wolfgang
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