Iceland - comment

We haven’t paid too much attention to Kantar’s market share statistics as Iceland historically moves in a tight range from 2.2% to 2.4% market share.  This month, Iceland is at the top end of the range, but there is nothing of note to read into this data point.  What is more newsworthy is the price inflation starting at 6.9%, only marginally down on the previous month. We were expecting it to reduce quicker.  Kantar highlights that retailers have taken their foot off the promotion gas as we enter 2024, which means inflation hasn’t fallen as quickly. Our model on Iceland includes a tightening of the selling margin into Iceland’s year-end (March). Still, so far this has not materialised, implying Iceland are on track to have its best EBITDA levels over the last 10 years.