Elior - comment
A share buyback of up to €252m over the next 18 months is an eye-catching headline, but we expect the actual buyback outlay will be much smaller and back-ended. The buyback authorisation figure is sized on 10% of outstanding shares at €10 per share, but with a current stock price of €2.36, the maximum leakage is around €60m. We estimate RCF Availability of €100m, so there is headroom. Our forecast EBITDA for FYE 24 is €233m with FCF after interest at around €10m, and year-end cash was €45m. Stock purchases are likely to be modest.