CMA CGM – rates and cash in 2021
All,
Please find our updated analysis here.
We have upgraded our model to forecast how volumes, rates and bunker price changes could impact the business in the coming year, both in terms of the current momentum, and of the potential reversal going forward.
The result is that we are forecasting sheer biblical cash generation this year, resulting from this period of extreme and unprecedented freight rates and allowing CMA CGM a broad range of options, including debt retirement, bumper CapEx, M&A and possibly an IPO. While freight rates will undoubtedly return to normal, any short on the basis of a crack-down on rates and other negative events seems a distant prospect at this time.
Our remaining 2% position in the 2022 bonds is ready to be redeployed elsewhere. We believe this could happen as soon as 15 July, when the call price steps down to 100.
As always, feel free to reach out if you want to exchange ideas on CMA CGM.
Juliano
________________
E: jtorii@sarria.co.uk
T: +44 203 744 7055