Casino - Should we?
All,
We will update on model once Casino publishes its full H1 results.
It has been mixed news once again. As often is the case when analysing Casino, different reporting perimeters and discontinued operations makes it difficult to follow. The Casino story remains a balancing act of poor underlying performance in their French groceries business versus strong asset coverage from their non-core assets. But, what can we make of it?
Underlying Performance:
- All European retailers have difficulty in drawing comparisons to FY20 results and Casino are no different. Like-for-like, on overall and same-store basis does not make for happy reading and the numbers are no better on a 2yr comparison. The underlying French retail business with organic growth down 6% Q2FY21 over Q2FY19 (with corresponding same-store growth down 3%). Monoprix and Franprix are performing better, but even both of those have negative organic and same-store growth rates. The only format with any positive numbers is Convenience.
- Margin: Despite the top-line declines, the Company has not been chasing sales. Trading Profit margin has increased by 2%, due to reduction in costs of €120m p.a, although we don’t have further details on which costs have been saved. This could give Casino a strong foundation if they stabilise/grow sales and/or the Parisian market improves post Covid19.
Leader Price:
- Casino sold Leader Price to Aldi France in March 2020 for a headline number of €735m, but subsequently the deal was confirmed at €648m at closing (November 2020) and potentially a further €35m depending on performance. It appears that Casino has had a cash outlay of €288m in H1 for stores that have not yet converted to the Aldi brand, and as only 400 stores have transferred by the end of July (with all due to convert by end of September) a further €70/80m of outflow is likely going forward.
- Is it permanent? The Company states the €288m is for seasonal effects and operating losses at Leader Price before conversions to Aldi. Retailers benefit from negative working capital and therefore when Casino completes the sale of Leader Price, they will face a working capital outflow. Our calculations suggest payables of c. €250m and inventory of €100m could potentially be written off (net outflow of €150m best case). Is the Working Capital unwind in the above number of €288m or yet to be crystallised?
Valuation:
- The valuation of Casino rests on its listed and unlisted assets. Given the relative underperformance of the underlying business, Casino credit and equity investors increasingly rely on these assets. The listed assets alone now account for €4bn and coupled with the non-core assets of GreenYellow, RelevanC and some real estate assets cover Net debt at France level (including the perps) of €5.9bn.
- So the market cap of Casino equity then largely relates to Casino France Retail alone. Casino France Retail has LTM sales of €14.3bn which based on current market cap of €2.6bn is valued at less than 0.2x sales multiple. The low valuation probably the division's performance accurately.
Investment Considerations:
- We continue to hold a position in the Rallye bonds.
- Bonds: We don’t see any compelling reason to take a long position in the bonds of Casino given their tight trading levels and short strategy is hampered by significant liquidity, asset coverage and lack of formal triggers for the next three years.
- Perps & equity: Driven by French like-for-likes, the Brazilian Real and asset realisations.
- French like-for-likes: Casino’s overweight exposure to the Parisian market has the potential for upside from reopening and resumption of tourism post Covid 19. From today’s perspective, now might be a good time to buy
- The Brazilian Real: The Latam assets generate no cash for Casino. However, the Real remains up year over year and continues with strong momentum. That too favours a taking a long position at this time, although the economics could easily be replicated by an underlying position in the currency or the GPA/Assai stock.
- Asset Realisations: The Company are still expecting c. €800m of further asset realisations as per their IFRS5 number, although Floa transaction will reduce this number to €600m. But in addition to these assets, we are expecting capital transactions at Cnova and GreenYellow this year, which will provide limited cash to Casino but should increase the Casino share price.
- All of the above, points to taking a long position, it needs to be balanced against the continued underperformance like-for-likes, the continuous drip feed of negative news (i.e. €288m of unexpected cash outflow) and for as long as this management team continues to run Casino we must assume this uncertainty will continue to command a discount on the stock. Nonetheless we are actively considering a position.
We await the full publication of the H1 numbers before updating our model.
Happy to discuss.
Tomás
E: tmannion@sarria.co.uk
T: +44 20 3744 7009
M:+44 7786 705 806
www.sarria.co.uk