Casino - Clearer picture emerging at Casino France Retail
All,
Please find our updated model here.
Casino continue to challenge debt and equity analysts by changes to reporting perimeters and the accounting for discontinued operations. However, with greater disclosure emerging from some of their unlisted assets, a clearer picture is emerging to the underlying performance of Casino France Retail.
Value Drivers:
- Management’s focus remains on deleveraging the balance sheet. There is limited scope to delever from internal cash generation (we forecast no free cash flow, post interest, from Casino France Retail over the next 2.5yrs). Therefore the source of any deleveraging will come from asset disposals.
Asset Disposals:
- Earlier this year, Cnova management commenced investor roadshows with equity investors with many expecting a secondary listing of Cnova shares from either Casino’s direct holding and/or GPA’s 34% stake. Cnova remains the most likely source of deleveraging cash but given the desire of Casino to retain control of Cnova, we envisage Casino only selling down their direct holding in Cnova to 50%, yielding c. €400m of proceeds.
- Any sale of GPA is complicated by the ability to move cash from LATAM to Casino and the leakage to external shareholders, as well as taxation of any proceeds. However, any sale of GPA’s stake should have a positive impact on GPA’s share price which appears to assign limited value to its underlying business.
Casino France Retail:
- Deducting the contribution of discontinued operations (Vindemia) and non-core assets (Cdiscount, GreenYellow & Property), our model shows that Casino France retail, post interest, generates no Free Cashflow over the next 2.5yrs. Our top-line assumptions are conservative, reflecting some return of footfall to Paris and perimeter. By contrast, we are assuming stable Gross Profit margins. As concerns food price inflation, we are comfortable that any headwinds will be more than matched by sales growth.
- As a result, we are forecasting an increase in EBITDA over time, which, if achieved, should drive an increase in valuations.
Catch 22 at Rallye:
- We strongly suspect the maturity wall at Rallye (February 2023) will arrive prior to significant deleveraging at Casino level, and therefore Rallye management will seek to amend and extend its secured debt. However, prior to an extension, a solution for the Unsecured will need to be found and we are expecting Naouri to launch further tenders to create equity value for Fonciere Euris. - However, there is a Catch22 at Rallye, as, on the one hand, any tender will need to be approved by its banks, who without improvement in security (Casino share price) might be unwilling to approve any higher interest expenses due to any new financing tranche. On the other hand, any improvement in Casino share price will lead to higher prices for Rallye unsecured making a tender more difficult.
Positioning
- We maintain our small position in Rallye unsecureds and we are preparing to take a long position in Casino equity at current levels. We are expecting footfall to return to Paris and perimeter over the next 12 months, driving top-line sales. We envisage Casino to keep a lid on SG&A, driving improvement in EBITDA levels at Casino France Retail. On that basis we are looking for the share price to return above €30, providing us with 25% return.
On the downside, food price inflation could provide a headwind in the gross margin that would offset above gains. However, currently creating Casino France Retail at 4.8x, we see limited downside risk beyond €20 per share.
We are not choosing to express this opinion in the Casino perps, as a large one-time and/or consistent oversized dividend will divert value past the perps to the equity.
Happy to discuss.
Tomás
E: tmannion@sarria.co.uk
T: +44 20 3744 7009
M:+44 7786 705 806