Boparan - One more time.
All,
Please find our updated analysis here.
We are not ready to invest in the Boparan 7.625% SSNs. On the positive side, Boparan has reset its previously fractious relationship with the supermarkets and feed prices are now subject to ratchets to pass through the cost to the supermarkets. Also, we are comfortable with the level of liquidity Boparan has over the next two years. Notwithstanding the positives, given high leverage and low interest coverage in our model we can see difficulties in refinancing the SSNs due in October 25 We would need to see Boparan outperforming our projections before committing to a long position. We acknowledge that our modelled EBITDA lags Boparan's (seemingly perpetual) target of £135m.
Investment Considerations
- The SSNs mature in October 2025, and we see a refinance using July 2024 (FYE) numbers as a challenge. Our 2024 expectation is for EBITDA of £100m => leverage of 6.5x, albeit falling to 5.7x by July 2025. FCF Interest Coverage, for instance, would only move above 1.0x by the July 2025 year-end assuming the debt can be refinanced at 8%. Clearly that is not a workable scenario.
- A deal on 2025 PF EBITDA of £135m would imply leverage below 4.7x, Boparan has pulled this off before and we do not rule it out. However, it needs the improved supermarket pricing behaviour to hold and for Meals and Bakery to recover (or be sold at a significant premium to the 6.0x valuation on the whole business. In a refinance, a credible PF EBITDA at £135m would require the 2024 results to be above our forecast of £100m.
- Poultry sales of £2.3bn (LTM) at an EBITDA margin of 6% would equate to an annual EBITDA of c£135m. At 5.5x => c£750m of EV, which would cover the debt stack and leave £100m of equity. There are a lot of steps to reach these Elysian Fields, and we are not yet convinced.
- Additionally, we value the Meals and Bakery division at £125m, which assumes margins bounce back quickly.
Poultry margins stabilising, Meals and bakery more challenging:
- The recovery of higher feed costs in past quarters and the introduction of feed cost ratchets (and ongoing negotiations on energy/labour pass-through agreements) have restored Poultry margins. We expect the better supermarket relationship to continue. There is no desire in the supermarkets to force one of their key suppliers into restructuring and risk supply disruption in the UK's favourite protein source.
- We project Poultry margins to rise to around 5.5% by 2025.
- Meals and Bakery have had a challenging couple of quarters. Boparan has struggled to get supermarkets to provide similar cost pass-throughs. We think a mixture of cost control, giving up unprofitable contracts, and cost recovery will mean margins stabilise this year. However, this process will be tough, given supermarkets are feeling the pinch too.
- Supermarkets may be willing to support a focused Chicken provider, but they are much less likely to support the much less crucial Meals & Bakery business. Exiting this and reducing debt could avoid a lot of tense negotiations.
Credit metrics marginal:
- Our modelling would have Boparan pitching a 4.7x levered business by FYE 2025 (excluding factoring, 5.7x with). FCF to interest coverage would be 1x.
- Our 2025 EBITDA forecast of £114m will lag projections from the company, but we have seen this before. Boparan has successfully sold the market a strong story before. However, it will have to start outperforming our current model over the forthcoming quarters for us to accept that this particular story will be accepted by investors again.
Aengus
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