AroundTown - playing catch up - Positioning

All,

I've included for you our updated analysis on AroundTown here

AroundTown continues to make progress and post their liability management exercises, investor focus will switch to equity-enhancing strategies. We continue to analyse AroundTown on a standalone basis but acknowledge that dividends are likely to recommence from Grand City Properties, in which they hold a 61% shareholding. Grand City Properties has shown an appetite for unsecured debt at sustainable levels.  


Investment Rationale:

- We are increasing our long position to 4% in the 5% perpetual bonds, 1st call July 2029 at 86%. We initiated our position in June at 58%, expecting further tightening in the unsecured as investors became more confident in AroundTown’s liquidity needs.  

- Our concerns regarding the Office segment resulted in the position being undersized. AroundTown acknowledges the underperformance in the German office market due to slower economic activity.  

- However, with dividends likely to recommence from Grand City Properties, coupled with the strong Hotels segment, we feel comfortable in taking a larger position.

- We expect further tightening in AroundTown’s perpetual position, with running yields potentially getting inside 5%. Yield to first call is currently 9% and although we don’t like using this measure, we envisage further 4-5pts of tightening, to yield to first call of c. 7.5%

- The downside is primarily macro-driven, and the perpetual bonds could easily trade down 10pts+ following any adverse movement in the rates market. This is slightly mitigated by a recommencement of dividends from Grand City Properties. 

- The overall size of the position should be seen in context with our changed position in Grand City Properties. We have exited our long in GCP's perpetual bonds and taken a 2% long equity position. 


Recent Results:

- Management believes they have reached a turning point in the real estate market, with capital markets opening, reducing revaluation losses, and stronger rental income. Away from the stronger residential market, AroundTown is seeing positive momentum in the hotel segment. The Office segment is still lagging, mainly due to the slower German economy, but there is relative confidence in further growth once economic activity picks up. 

- With the liability management efforts over the summer now behind AroundTown, the focus will solely be on further deleveraging via disposals. These disposals are mainly small in size, with limited confidence in the market for larger transactions. 


Development and Investment Portfolio:

- We have previously written that AroundTown has focused on its performing assets, with limited exposure to development assets. This segment accounts for c. 10% of AroundTown’s standalone portfolio, with the exposure evenly split between Offices (40%) Resi/mixed use (33%) and Hotels (28%). AroundTown have divested €800m of exposure via disposals of building rights etc. as the Company attempts to de-risk their portfolio.  

- Although we expect AroundTown to remain in cash conservation mode, we expect a change in the upcoming quarters with an increasing focus on this segment. Currently, AroundTown is taking only selective development of low-risk projects, mainly refurbishments, but this will have to change to drive equity value.


Happy to discuss.

Tomás

E: tmannion@sarria.co.uk
T: +44 20 3744 7009
www.sarria.co.uk

Tomás MannionAROUNDTOWN