Amigo - Everyone shares.
All,
Please find our unchanged analysis here.
Amigo provided a little more meat to the bones of its restructuring proposal, but the meaningful details will need to await the Practice Statement Letter, which Amigo hopes to send out before the end of the calendar year. The agreement requires the support of the FCA, an objection from the regulator or lack of clarity on the size of any potential future fine could still see Amigo forced down the winding up or insolvency route. This has always been a risk and our thesis is unchanged by this morning’s news, and we maintain our 7% long position in the bonds.
FCA is not yet on board
- The FCA will now look at the proposals (Amigo 2.0/Wind-Down) and decide if it will support a return to lending or the winding up of Amigo.
- The customer committee wanted and have got an all-cash settlement. The amount paid to claimants will rise to £112m (vs £35m initially proposed).
- Existing Shareholders are now sharing the pain and will be diluted by the new equity raise of £70m vs current market capitalisation of £30m. Shareholders being left whole was at the heart of the FCA's objection to the previous Scheme.
- The FCA could object to both plans, and if the court agrees with them, management will go down an insolvency route. The potential negative impact on complainant recoveries and the removal of an alternative lender are outcomes the FCA would likely prefer not to see.
Bondholders to be offered a chance to participate:
- We expect Amigo to look to refinance the existing bonds after January once the call premium falls to zero. The exact timing will depend on the Scheme of Arrangement.
- We expect bondholders will be given a chance to accept repayment or exchange into a new bond. As an alternative bondholders’ may be offered to participate in the capital raise through partial equitization of their holdings. Our preference would be for the latter.
Amigo 2.0 is looking to raise at least £70m in new equity:
- To launch Amigo 2.0, the company needs £120m - £300m in capital, with £70m in new equity hoped for. This Is broadly in line with our view from September. We expected a requirement of around £100m. Better cash collection and less ambitious growth plans may have reduced this. We expect the amount of capital (including equity) needed to be dependent on the level of bondholder participation in the exchange or partial equitisation.
Timeline into 2022:
- The discussions with the FCA will take some time, but without them, a Practice Statement Letter cannot be issued. Amigo hopes to conclude this before the end of the year. Then the plan will be put to creditors, a process that will take up to six weeks. Court approval of whichever Scheme is selected will be in March at the earliest.
Positioning
- We maintain our 7% bond position and fully expect Amigo to redeem the bonds after January. There is a potential upside to bondholders in converting part or all their debt holdings into new equity post Scheme approval. The FCA could still sink the plan by pushing the company into insolvency. However, that would mainly hurt the retail complainants as bondholders would be covered from cash at Amigo.
Keen to exchange ideas,
Aengus
E: amcmahon@sarria.co.uk
T: +44 203 744 7055