Senvion restructuring model
All,
While bondholders as of yesterday are accelerating, we have been adding our latest insights to a flexible restructuring model of both, a liquidation (unlikely, but useful background) and a distressed sale into a NewCo as is customary in such circumstances in Germany.
Fundamentally, Senvion has been sending all the right signals as of late, including the recommencement of works on the Tiranell offshore park.
However, in line with our concern all along, we are not convinced bondholders will make any significant recovery from such a process and will not be invited to bid for the NewCo alongside Davidson Kempner, Anchorage and DB. As such we think the current bond price is primarily driven by the opportunity to exit into those players (to have their claims elevated) and for not much longer. In a distressed section 363 style asset sale to a NewCo, we don’t believe there will be any recovery to the bonds at all, safe for a small allowance the administrators may be looking to reserve to make the deal less contentious in court.
Safe for any significant changes to the above we will therefore continue to stand on the sidelines.
Wolfgang