Tullow - Comments

The Petroleum Commission, Ghana, has updated the Gross production figures for Jubilee and TEN fields for October and November. The figures are in line with Company guidance released in November. The graphs illustrate the impact of the recent drilling program at Jubilee, and the absence at TEN. A gas injector did come on stream at TEN in late October and this should stabilise production.

Tullow is due to release a January trading statement on the 26th, where they will outline their production guidance for FY22. Based on current production, we expect Tullow to guide 44k-48k boepd for their post-acquisition Ghanian fields ownership. Our current model is expecting c.45k, and therefore we are not updating the model before the release.

Separately, we are surprised there has been no fanfare surrounding the submission of the Field Development Plan for their Kenyan operations. As part of the conditions of their licenses in Kenya, the FDP had to be submitted by December 2021. We have contacted the Company and await confirmation.

Note: Graphs represent the pre-acquisition ownership percentages for both Jubilee and TEN in order to be comparable to guidance figures from beginning of the year.