- for speed listening, go to the settings wheel on the bottom right of the video and choose playback speed - after one minute video becomes high-resolution.

Intro Cap and Legal Structure - 22 Jul 24

Investment Discussion - 22 Jul 24

Company - 22 Jul 24

Company - 22 Jul 24

Financials and Valuation - 22 Jul 24

SARRIA News -INTU
Graanul - Apollo's options
Tomás Mannion
Graanul - Apollo's options
Tomás Mannion

Please find our updated analysis on Graanul here.

We wrote extensively on Graanul before the numbers, and therefore this update is more focused on the options available to Apollo

Tomás Mannion
Graanul - comment
Tomás Mannion
Graanul - comment
Tomás Mannion

The Q1 numbers are in line with our view. The financials are the secondary focus for Graanul, and all eyes will be on the Company’s plan to secure

Tomás Mannion
Graanul - Has anything changed?
Tomás Mannion
Graanul - Has anything changed?
Tomás Mannion

Please find our updated analysis here. 

We have changed our model substantially, which gives us a better understanding of the business. However, the ultimate issue remains the

Tomás Mannion
Tomás Mannion
Graanul - comment
Tomás Mannion

Time is ticking. We are revisiting the name after receiving several questions about it. The bonds have been stuck in the mid-80s since April as doubts

Tomás Mannion
Graanul - comment
Tomás Mannion
Graanul - comment
Tomás Mannion

Graanul released its FY24 annual report yesterday but most of the numbers were already in its non-deal roadshow presentation in February. Despite

Tomás Mannion
Tomás Mannion
Graanul - comment
Tomás Mannion

Drax released its FY24 numbers but we await the Q&A to glean new information about its agreement with the UK government regarding subsidies for

Tomás Mannion
Tomás Mannion
Graanul - the refinancing debate
Tomás Mannion

Post the investor meetings last week, we have added our thoughts to the potential refinancing debate. 

Ultimately, we don’t believe a refinancing is currently possible given the debate around the name. The uncertainty beyond FY26, with limited contracted sales coupled with public doubts about the “green” credentials of biomass, is juxtaposed with

Tomás Mannion
Graanul - comment
Tomás Mannion
Graanul - comment
Tomás Mannion

The 5pt drop in Graanul bond price reflects the realisation that refinancing isn’t imminent.  The Company presentation yesterday highlighted the

Tomás Mannion
Tomás Mannion
Graanul - comment
Tomás Mannion

The Graanul call has just ended. Due to overlapping call schedules we are only listening to a replay now. We will revert with an update.

Tomás Mannion
Tomás Mannion
Graanul - comment
Tomás Mannion

Drax confirmed in a RNS that it has a Heads of terms agreed with UK Government for low carbon dispatchable CfD, ensuring Drax’s biomass plants

Tomás Mannion
Tomás Mannion
Graanul - comment
Tomás Mannion

Following Graanul’s trading statement earlier this week, the Company announced investor calls/Roadshow next week.  Register for the call https://evercall.co/oacc/53645 on

Tomás Mannion
Graanul - comment
Tomás Mannion
Graanul - comment
Tomás Mannion

Graanul released a decent trading statement for FY24 but the focus will remain on its ability to refinance its 2026 bond maturities. Leverage remains at

Tomás Mannion
Graanul - Talking up a refinancing
Saahil Dey
Graanul - Talking up a refinancing
Saahil Dey

Please find our updated analysis post the Q3 2024 results on Graanul here.

Graanul is still suffering from transitory issues (inventory de-stocking & non existent spot market) though it has made progress in its contracted business and

Saahil Dey
Graanul - comment
Saahil Dey
Graanul - comment
Saahil Dey

The Estonian wood pellet producer reported Q3 2024 revenues of €103.9. million (which was below our expectations of €127 million for the quarter.) Q3 EBITDA was

Saahil Dey
Graanul - slow burn but winter is here
Saahil Dey
Graanul - slow burn but winter is here
Saahil Dey

Please find our updated analysis post the Q2 2024 results on Graanul here.

We remain on the sidelines (post our Initiation Note) as Graanul is still suffering from transitory issues (inventory de-stocking and demand weakness for

Saahil Dey
AG Graanul Invest: Waiting for General Winter
Saahil Dey
AG Graanul Invest: Waiting for General Winter
Saahil Dey

Please find our initiation and financial model on AG Graanul Invest here.

Due to variables that are beyond its control (pellet pricing, raw material availability, weather and the pace of inventory de-stocking by its

Saahil Dey