A lonely call this morning, as bonds are locked up and the RCF lenders have all agreed. Still, we have had difficulty modelling the significant uptick in collections that
50% sign-up to the restructuring plan is still a long way off. Initial levels at Intrum have been similar, but Intrum got a big boost when the 2024s rolled
Being a slow-moving underlying business, quarterly figures did not deviate far from projections, which themselves were closely guided already. The call did
Having done endless work on the name in 2020, we find the situation relatively clear-cut now. Back then, selling CDS to fill the gap was a natural strategy. Now the ends are
Have we had an epiphany, or are we going mad? For the first time, we’ve been culled from the Q&A - a signal that management are more nervous about the refinancing
Iquera hired advisors yesterday - the bonds tanked some 30 points. We don’t know the company all that well yet, but it's been engaged in ABS transactions in
Please find our unchanged analysis of Lowell here.
As is easily the case in a trade that isn’t based on solid fundamentals, but rather on the market itself, the fundamentals play out, but by that time the
Collections held up (did not deteriorate further - in contrast to Intrum) and the company underspent on new portfolios (even relative to our model), sweating its
Q323 has been uneventful. Neither did the company sell any further portfolios, nor did it produce any other outstanding results or forecast. As a result, the
Please find our new analysis of Lowell / GFKL here. It’s not our favourite kind of trade, but there is undeniably an opportunity here. Perhaps we should be putting it on. We’d be relying on the greater
